# Uncategorized **URL:** https://community.epinowcast.org/c/uncategorized/1.md [Latest](https://community.epinowcast.org/latest.md) · [Categories](https://community.epinowcast.org/categories.md) · [Tags](https://community.epinowcast.org/tags.md) --- ## [Welcome to the Epinowcast Forum!](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/welcome-to-the-epinowcast-forum/7)
**Author:** [@system](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/system)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [21 August 2022 18:27 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/welcome-to-the-epinowcast-forum/7 "2022-08-21T18:27:58Z")
The Epinowcast Forums provide a community for asking and answering questions about all aspects of Epinowcast and related real-time infectious disease modelling questions. New to the forum? Why not introduce yourself in #i… --- ## [New release of our BVD DRV outbreak modelling now with a health zone model](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/new-release-of-our-bvd-drv-outbreak-modelling-now-with-a-health-zone-model/430)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [8 October 2026 09:16 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/new-release-of-our-bvd-drv-outbreak-modelling-now-with-a-health-zone-model/430 "2026-10-08T09:16:25Z")
See Dashboard | BVDOutbreakSize Some comments from me: @seabbs.bsky.social on Bluesky --- ## [Can you use within host processes to link common epi delays? TLDR yes](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/can-you-use-within-host-processes-to-link-common-epi-delays-tldr-yes/429)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [28 September 2026 15:12 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/can-you-use-within-host-processes-to-link-common-epi-delays-tldr-yes/429 "2026-09-28T15:12:58Z")
Some new work from Nyall Jamieson, Lauren Meyers and co looking at if you might want to and if you can do this. TLDR is as above yes you can, yes it is elegant, yes it has an impact and yes it “works better” than standa… --- ## [JuliaCon - anyone see any talks of interest and what I am speaking about](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/juliacon-anyone-see-any-talks-of-interest-and-what-i-am-speaking-about/428)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [13 August 2026 16:29 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/juliacon-anyone-see-any-talks-of-interest-and-what-i-am-speaking-about/428 "2026-08-13T16:29:08Z")
I am attending JulaCon this week. If anyone notices any talks that look interesting to people here happy to be steered… Sessions: JuliaCon 2026 :: pretalx I am giving a few talks and currently hacking them out using se… --- ## [EpiAware - new composable modelling org for thinking Julia thoughts](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epiaware-new-composable-modelling-org-for-thinking-julia-thoughts/424)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [6 August 2026 10:00 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epiaware-new-composable-modelling-org-for-thinking-julia-thoughts/424 "2026-08-06T10:00:18Z")
All very LLM driven by me so far but hopefully can grow it into something. There are a few example approaches linked/in dev by me and a few from others linked out to. This was all part of a failed series of team grants s… --- ## [Relative score aggregation - harmonic mean?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/relative-score-aggregation-harmonic-mean/404)
**Author:** [@kath-sherratt](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kath-sherratt)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [6 August 2026 08:25 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/relative-score-aggregation-harmonic-mean/404 "2026-08-06T08:25:51Z")
Hello, Bit niche but I had a question about the way we aggregate forecast relative skill scores, and hoped people here would be well placed to help. (TLDR:) I wondered if the harmonic mean might be a useful average for … --- ## [How to make modeling tools more portable](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/how-to-make-modeling-tools-more-portable/425)
**Author:** [@adrianlison](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/adrianlison)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [5 August 2026 15:12 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/how-to-make-modeling-tools-more-portable/425 "2026-08-05T15:12:21Z")
I recently worked on making EpiSewer a bit more portable and wanted to share what came out of it - this is especially focused on deploying stan models in different environments, but I think much of it also applies to oth… --- ## [𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁: 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗽𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/topic/427)
**Author:** [@slmontes](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/slmontes)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [5 August 2026 09:56 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/topic/427 "2026-08-05T09:56:06Z")
We are hosting a free 3-day workshop on 𝟭𝟲𝘁𝗵-𝟭𝟴𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 at 𝗟𝗦𝗛𝗧𝗠! Participants will learn how to use the Julia programming language to build deterministic models from first principles, starting with the clas… --- ## [Community seminar 01-07-2026 - Recapping survival analysis vs infectious disease modelling](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-07-2026-recapping-survival-analysis-vs-infectious-disease-modelling/423)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [1 July 2026 14:09 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-07-2026-recapping-survival-analysis-vs-infectious-disease-modelling/423 "2026-07-01T14:09:17Z")
--- ## [Epidist used for clinical reporting in the BVD DRC outbreak](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epidist-used-for-clinical-reporting-in-the-bvd-drc-outbreak/422)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [30 June 2026 10:06 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epidist-used-for-clinical-reporting-in-the-bvd-drc-outbreak/422 "2026-06-30T10:06:51Z")
Sorry I wrote a thread on bluesky and then thought I should share here so just going to link to thread:: --- ## [Community seminar 02-06-2026 - 2026 Ebola Outbreak Round Table](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-02-06-2026-2026-ebola-outbreak-round-table/406)
**Author:** [@clarabrigitta](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/clarabrigitta)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [2 June 2026 13:46 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-02-06-2026-2026-ebola-outbreak-round-table/406 "2026-06-02T13:46:30Z")
This week’s seminar at 3pm UK time tomorrow (Wednesday), will be an Ebola-themed round table. We’ll start with 5-10mins each from our speakers on modelling/modelling-adjacent topics relevant to real-time outbreak respons… --- ## [Community seminar 04-04-2026 - Eva Bons - An overview of RespiCast and the choice of forecasting targets](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-04-2026-eva-bons-an-overview-of-respicast-and-the-choice-of-forecasting-targets/405)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [7 May 2026 09:03 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-04-2026-eva-bons-an-overview-of-respicast-and-the-choice-of-forecasting-targets/405 "2026-05-07T09:03:33Z")
For this weeks seminar at 3pm UK time tomorrow (wednesday) we have Dr Eva Bons speaking about the ECDC respiratory forecasting hub “respicast”. This will be the first seminar run by new organisers @fannybergstrom and @… --- ## [Scoring best practice: Should we always have scoring simulations in our papers?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/scoring-best-practice-should-we-always-have-scoring-simulations-in-our-papers/402)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [27 April 2026 11:13 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/scoring-best-practice-should-we-always-have-scoring-simulations-in-our-papers/402 "2026-04-27T11:13:28Z")
I was thinking about some of the slides from the KIT meeting this week that @johannes, @kejohnson9, and @sbfnk attended. In theoretical work we often see simulations of known settings scored and used to understand how s… --- ## [Contrasting modelling challenges](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/contrasting-modelling-challenges/403)
**Author:** [@kath-sherratt](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kath-sherratt)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [23 April 2026 21:49 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/contrasting-modelling-challenges/403 "2026-04-23T21:49:11Z")
Recently came across two live modelling challenges relevant to real-time / outbreak modelling. They are extremely different (development, audience) and thought it was kind of an interesting contrast, so sharing below. (… --- ## [Community seminar 01-04-2026 - Show and tell and future directions](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-04-2026-show-and-tell-and-future-directions/394)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [15 April 2026 16:49 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-04-2026-show-and-tell-and-future-directions/394 "2026-04-15T16:49:03Z")
No formal seminar this week but instead a show and tell plus open discussion on future community directions (3pm UK time today!) --- ## [What is happening in the delay distribution samiverse?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-is-happening-in-the-delay-distribution-samiverse/393)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [10 March 2026 19:21 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-is-happening-in-the-delay-distribution-samiverse/393 "2026-03-10T19:21:21Z")
I got asked to write up a little something on what I have been doing (with others) on delay estimation and what the future holds. I thought others might like to see the semi-incoherent babble. For anyone involved in this… --- ## [Community seminar - 04-03-2026 - Nina Schmid - Universal differential equations for epidemiology: Current state and open problems](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-03-2026-nina-schmid-universal-differential-equations-for-epidemiology-current-state-and-open-problems/389)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [2 March 2026 18:46 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-03-2026-nina-schmid-universal-differential-equations-for-epidemiology-current-state-and-open-problems/389 "2026-03-02T18:46:50Z")
Wednesday 4th of March. Async questions here. Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) augment mechanistic differential-equation models with neural networks to represent unknown processes, balancing structural interpreta… --- ## [Transform and aggregate scoring rules](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/transform-and-aggregate-scoring-rules/383)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [24 February 2026 12:19 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/transform-and-aggregate-scoring-rules/383 "2026-02-24T12:19:04Z")
I was just taking a look at Pic et al. 2025 again and this time engaged more beyond noting it would have been nice to see them cite @nikosbosse more (:smile: ). Claude dug out a bunch of references, some of which I was … --- ## [Renewal models as neural networks](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/renewal-models-as-neural-networks/385)
**Author:** [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [23 February 2026 16:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/renewal-models-as-neural-networks/385 "2026-02-23T16:28:45Z")
My first Msc was in neural networks back in the mists of time (2006), so I’ve always had an interest whilst not really going down a ML maxing path in my research. An aspect of epi Renewal models is that the underlying i… --- ## [Do your evaluations have enough power?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/do-your-evaluations-have-enough-power/366)
**Author:** [@jonathon.mellor](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jonathon.mellor)\ **Replies:** 27\ **Last updated:** [17 February 2026 17:42 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/do-your-evaluations-have-enough-power/366 "2026-02-17T17:42:09Z")
This is more a collection of thoughts than a coherent research idea, alas. I’m reading lots of literature and doing lots of model scoring, but I can’t help worry that I’m drawing conclusions from statistical artifacts r… --- ## [SISMID 2026 - please tell your friends to do my course](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/sismid-2026-please-tell-your-friends-to-do-my-course/369)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [19 January 2026 16:59 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/sismid-2026-please-tell-your-friends-to-do-my-course/369 "2026-01-19T16:59:10Z")
The courses for SISMID 2026 are now online: The Summer Institute in Statistics and Modeling in Infectious Diseases (SISMID) | In-Person Program I really enjoyed teaching nowcasting and forecasting with @nickreich last … --- ## [Google hurricane forecasting evaluation](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/google-hurricane-forecasting-evaluation/372)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [5 January 2026 16:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/google-hurricane-forecasting-evaluation/372 "2026-01-05T16:28:27Z")
I really enjoyed this recent preprint on hurricane forecasting from Google folks: https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/how-we-re-supporting-better-tropical-cyclone-prediction-with-ai/skillful-j… --- ## [Universal differential equations in system Biology](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/universal-differential-equations-in-system-biology/362)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [5 January 2026 15:08 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/universal-differential-equations-in-system-biology/362 "2026-01-05T15:08:40Z")
Really nice paper on universal differential equations in systems biology with some nice looking Julia code. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41540-025-00550-w Code: GitHub - m-philipps/ude\_pipeline\_systemsbio --- ## [2025: The Year in Review](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/2025-the-year-in-review/368)
**Author:** [@system](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/system)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [1 January 2026 08:08 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/2025-the-year-in-review/368 "2026-01-01T08:08:41Z")
2025's Top Users Most Time Reading User Hours Read @sambrand 3 @jonathon.mellor 3 @kejohnson9 2 @kath-sherratt 2 @kylieainslie 1 @jamesazam 1 @sbfnk 1 @OvertonC 1 @athowes 1 @medewit… --- ## [What matters in academic publishing? Anyone know of good dashboards/tools for analysis?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-matters-in-academic-publishing-anyone-know-of-good-dashboards-tools-for-analysis/359)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [31 October 2025 10:31 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-matters-in-academic-publishing-anyone-know-of-good-dashboards-tools-for-analysis/359 "2025-10-31T10:31:33Z")
Spoke to a colleague last night about what works and doesn’t in academic publishing. They were making the case that most work is done by the first and last authors, and so, aside from network effects, usually little cost… --- ## [PhD Internships at UKHSA](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/phd-internships-at-ukhsa/356)
**Author:** [@jonathon.mellor](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jonathon.mellor)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [21 October 2025 11:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/phd-internships-at-ukhsa/356 "2025-10-21T11:28:30Z")
Hi everyone, My team at UKHSA is advertising a funded PhD internship / industrial placement starting in January that’s really relevant to this group. We do lots of forecasting, nowcasting and real-time estimates across … --- ## [Forecasting: Principles & practice book club](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276)
**Author:** [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Replies:** 25\ **Last updated:** [6 October 2025 15:48 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276 "2025-10-06T15:48:13Z")
Hi all, Updated: A few folks at LSHTM are planning on setting up a book club to review some chapters and related materials in Forecasting principles & practice. There was some interest in extending this to the broader e… --- ## [Are you using Julia?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/are-you-using-julia/351)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [29 September 2025 09:48 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/are-you-using-julia/351 "2025-09-29T09:48:25Z")
As the title. Are you reading this and do you actively use Julia? Is yes and yes it would be great to know. (looking for active Julia users in the infectious disease modelling community) also happy to hear from the Juli… --- ## [Lots of GP models + nowcasting](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/lots-of-gp-models-nowcasting/349)
**Author:** [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Replies:** 10\ **Last updated:** [24 September 2025 13:44 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/lots-of-gp-models-nowcasting/349 "2025-09-24T13:44:44Z")
Automatic kernel selection with GPs I’m a really big fan of this package GitHub - probsys/AutoGP.jl: Automated Bayesian model discovery for time series data which does automated Gaussian process kernel selection in a par… --- ## [So I want to score related things in scoringutils?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/so-i-want-to-score-related-things-in-scoringutils/350)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [24 September 2025 08:42 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/so-i-want-to-score-related-things-in-scoringutils/350 "2025-09-24T08:42:47Z")
Ah sorry you need to score them independently and then combine… Not any more! Lots of work from @nikosbosse here whilst being heckled by @sbfnk and I. This just supports the energy score for now (wraps scoringRules)… [Next page](https://community.epinowcast.org/c/uncategorized/1.md?page=1)