# Latest **URL:** https://community.epinowcast.org/latest.md [Latest](https://community.epinowcast.org/latest.md) · [Categories](https://community.epinowcast.org/categories.md) · [Tags](https://community.epinowcast.org/tags.md) --- ## [Welcome to the Epinowcast Forum!](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/welcome-to-the-epinowcast-forum/7)
**Author:** [@system](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/system)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [21 August 2022 18:27 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/welcome-to-the-epinowcast-forum/7 "2022-08-21T18:27:58Z")
The Epinowcast Forums provide a community for asking and answering questions about all aspects of Epinowcast and related real-time infectious disease modelling questions. New to the forum? Why not introduce yourself in #i… --- ## [JuliaCon - anyone see any talks of interest and what I am speaking about](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/juliacon-anyone-see-any-talks-of-interest-and-what-i-am-speaking-about/428)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [13 August 2026 16:29 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/juliacon-anyone-see-any-talks-of-interest-and-what-i-am-speaking-about/428 "2026-08-13T16:29:08Z")
I am attending JulaCon this week. If anyone notices any talks that look interesting to people here happy to be steered… Sessions: JuliaCon 2026 :: pretalx I am giving a few talks and currently hacking them out using se… --- ## [EpiAware - new composable modelling org for thinking Julia thoughts](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epiaware-new-composable-modelling-org-for-thinking-julia-thoughts/424)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [6 August 2026 10:00 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epiaware-new-composable-modelling-org-for-thinking-julia-thoughts/424 "2026-08-06T10:00:18Z")
All very LLM driven by me so far but hopefully can grow it into something. There are a few example approaches linked/in dev by me and a few from others linked out to. This was all part of a failed series of team grants s… --- ## [Relative score aggregation - harmonic mean?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/relative-score-aggregation-harmonic-mean/404)
**Author:** [@kath-sherratt](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kath-sherratt)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [6 August 2026 08:25 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/relative-score-aggregation-harmonic-mean/404 "2026-08-06T08:25:51Z")
Hello, Bit niche but I had a question about the way we aggregate forecast relative skill scores, and hoped people here would be well placed to help. (TLDR:) I wondered if the harmonic mean might be a useful average for … --- ## [How to make modeling tools more portable](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/how-to-make-modeling-tools-more-portable/425)
**Author:** [@adrianlison](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/adrianlison)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [5 August 2026 15:12 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/how-to-make-modeling-tools-more-portable/425 "2026-08-05T15:12:21Z")
I recently worked on making EpiSewer a bit more portable and wanted to share what came out of it - this is especially focused on deploying stan models in different environments, but I think much of it also applies to oth… --- ## [𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗬𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗲𝘀𝘁: 𝗠𝗼𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗘𝗽𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗝𝘂𝗹𝗶𝗮 𝗪𝗼𝗿𝗸𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗽](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/topic/427)
**Author:** [@slmontes](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/slmontes)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [5 August 2026 09:56 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/topic/427 "2026-08-05T09:56:06Z")
We are hosting a free 3-day workshop on 𝟭𝟲𝘁𝗵-𝟭𝟴𝘁𝗵 𝗼𝗳 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 at 𝗟𝗦𝗛𝗧𝗠! Participants will learn how to use the Julia programming language to build deterministic models from first principles, starting with the clas… --- ## [New Monthly Seminar Link](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/new-monthly-seminar-link/426)
**Author:** [@clarabrigitta](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/clarabrigitta)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [4 August 2026 07:57 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/new-monthly-seminar-link/426 "2026-08-04T07:57:10Z")
Hi all, Just a quick announcement saying we’ve updated the calendar and Zoom links to the monthly seminars. You can still add the calendars as usual to avoid missing out! Or join directly using the new Zoom link. All th… --- ## [Community seminar 01-07-2026 - Recapping survival analysis vs infectious disease modelling](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-07-2026-recapping-survival-analysis-vs-infectious-disease-modelling/423)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [1 July 2026 14:09 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-07-2026-recapping-survival-analysis-vs-infectious-disease-modelling/423 "2026-07-01T14:09:17Z")
--- ## [Epidist used for clinical reporting in the BVD DRC outbreak](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epidist-used-for-clinical-reporting-in-the-bvd-drc-outbreak/422)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [30 June 2026 10:06 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epidist-used-for-clinical-reporting-in-the-bvd-drc-outbreak/422 "2026-06-30T10:06:51Z")
Sorry I wrote a thread on bluesky and then thought I should share here so just going to link to thread:: --- ## [Community seminar 02-06-2026 - 2026 Ebola Outbreak Round Table](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-02-06-2026-2026-ebola-outbreak-round-table/406)
**Author:** [@clarabrigitta](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/clarabrigitta)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [2 June 2026 13:46 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-02-06-2026-2026-ebola-outbreak-round-table/406 "2026-06-02T13:46:30Z")
This week’s seminar at 3pm UK time tomorrow (Wednesday), will be an Ebola-themed round table. We’ll start with 5-10mins each from our speakers on modelling/modelling-adjacent topics relevant to real-time outbreak respons… --- ## [Community seminar 04-04-2026 - Eva Bons - An overview of RespiCast and the choice of forecasting targets](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-04-2026-eva-bons-an-overview-of-respicast-and-the-choice-of-forecasting-targets/405)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 2\ **Last updated:** [7 May 2026 09:03 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-04-2026-eva-bons-an-overview-of-respicast-and-the-choice-of-forecasting-targets/405 "2026-05-07T09:03:33Z")
For this weeks seminar at 3pm UK time tomorrow (wednesday) we have Dr Eva Bons speaking about the ECDC respiratory forecasting hub “respicast”. This will be the first seminar run by new organisers @fannybergstrom and @… --- ## [Scoring best practice: Should we always have scoring simulations in our papers?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/scoring-best-practice-should-we-always-have-scoring-simulations-in-our-papers/402)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [27 April 2026 11:13 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/scoring-best-practice-should-we-always-have-scoring-simulations-in-our-papers/402 "2026-04-27T11:13:28Z")
I was thinking about some of the slides from the KIT meeting this week that @johannes, @kejohnson9, and @sbfnk attended. In theoretical work we often see simulations of known settings scored and used to understand how s… --- ## [Contrasting modelling challenges](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/contrasting-modelling-challenges/403)
**Author:** [@kath-sherratt](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kath-sherratt)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [23 April 2026 21:49 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/contrasting-modelling-challenges/403 "2026-04-23T21:49:11Z")
Recently came across two live modelling challenges relevant to real-time / outbreak modelling. They are extremely different (development, audience) and thought it was kind of an interesting contrast, so sharing below. (… --- ## [Epinowcast 0.6.0](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epinowcast-0-6-0/401)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [22 April 2026 11:48 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epinowcast-0-6-0/401 "2026-04-22T11:48:50Z")
Ahead of next week’s Insight meeting I pushed out a new epinowcast release. I thought it was worthwhile sharing here. The headline additions are print(), summary(), and improved plotting for both preprocessed data and f… --- ## [Community seminar 01-04-2026 - Show and tell and future directions](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-04-2026-show-and-tell-and-future-directions/394)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [15 April 2026 16:49 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-01-04-2026-show-and-tell-and-future-directions/394 "2026-04-15T16:49:03Z")
No formal seminar this week but instead a show and tell plus open discussion on future community directions (3pm UK time today!) --- ## [Alice de Sampaio Kalkuhl](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/alice-de-sampaio-kalkuhl/396)
**Author:** [@A\_dSampaioKalkuhl](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/A_dSampaioKalkuhl)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [15 April 2026 13:31 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/alice-de-sampaio-kalkuhl/396 "2026-04-15T13:31:38Z")
Hi everyone! I recently found out about epinowcast and have been reading back on discussions and packages. My goal is to get more involved in the community over the next couple of years. I’m Alice and I do outbreak inv… --- ## [Data management recommendations for nowcasting](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/data-management-recommendations-for-nowcasting/40)
**Author:** [@adrianlison](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/adrianlison)\ **Replies:** 13\ **Last updated:** [23 March 2026 16:17 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/data-management-recommendations-for-nowcasting/40 "2026-03-23T16:17:03Z")
This is a small research project intending to highlight the importance of data quality in epidemiological reporting for nowcasting/real-time surveillance and to provide data management recommendations for improving upon … --- ## [Evaluation & responsible modelling - 24 March](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/evaluation-responsible-modelling-24-march/390)
**Author:** [@kath-sherratt](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kath-sherratt)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [18 March 2026 10:29 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/evaluation-responsible-modelling-24-march/390 "2026-03-18T10:29:03Z")
On 24th March, we’re organising a workshop on Evaluation & responsible modelling in London. Not specifically “epinowcast"/real-time focus, but definitely inclusive of (and hearing from some great speakers,@kejohnson9 amo… --- ## [Baseball Stats, Model Cards, and Forecasting Performance](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/baseball-stats-model-cards-and-forecasting-performance/322)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 17\ **Last updated:** [11 March 2026 16:52 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/baseball-stats-model-cards-and-forecasting-performance/322 "2026-03-11T16:52:19Z")
TL;DR: A baseball game in Atlanta led to some ideas for visual scorecards, performance-above-replacement metrics, and effort-normalised evaluation that seem useful/interesting. I have been in Atlanta for the last few da… --- ## [What is happening in the delay distribution samiverse?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-is-happening-in-the-delay-distribution-samiverse/393)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 1\ **Last updated:** [10 March 2026 19:21 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/what-is-happening-in-the-delay-distribution-samiverse/393 "2026-03-10T19:21:21Z")
I got asked to write up a little something on what I have been doing (with others) on delay estimation and what the future holds. I thought others might like to see the semi-incoherent babble. For anyone involved in this… --- ## [Community seminar - 04-03-2026 - Nina Schmid - Universal differential equations for epidemiology: Current state and open problems](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-03-2026-nina-schmid-universal-differential-equations-for-epidemiology-current-state-and-open-problems/389)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [2 March 2026 18:46 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-03-2026-nina-schmid-universal-differential-equations-for-epidemiology-current-state-and-open-problems/389 "2026-03-02T18:46:50Z")
Wednesday 4th of March. Async questions here. Universal Differential Equations (UDEs) augment mechanistic differential-equation models with neural networks to represent unknown processes, balancing structural interpreta… --- ## [Minimum viable model for generation time estimation](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/minimum-viable-model-for-generation-time-estimation/387)
**Author:** [@kylieainslie](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kylieainslie)\ **Replies:** 5\ **Last updated:** [1 March 2026 15:10 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/minimum-viable-model-for-generation-time-estimation/387 "2026-03-01T15:10:53Z")
Hi All, @samabbott and I have been discussing creating a tool that features the minimum viable model for generation time (GT) estimation that can be a component of a larger modelling framework. The main idea is that ra… --- ## [Transform and aggregate scoring rules](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/transform-and-aggregate-scoring-rules/383)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [24 February 2026 12:19 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/transform-and-aggregate-scoring-rules/383 "2026-02-24T12:19:04Z")
I was just taking a look at Pic et al. 2025 again and this time engaged more beyond noting it would have been nice to see them cite @nikosbosse more (:smile: ). Claude dug out a bunch of references, some of which I was … --- ## [Renewal models as neural networks](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/renewal-models-as-neural-networks/385)
**Author:** [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [23 February 2026 16:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/renewal-models-as-neural-networks/385 "2026-02-23T16:28:45Z")
My first Msc was in neural networks back in the mists of time (2006), so I’ve always had an interest whilst not really going down a ML maxing path in my research. An aspect of epi Renewal models is that the underlying i… --- ## [Design sketch: Julia equivalents of scoringRules and scoringutils — feedback welcome](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/design-sketch-julia-equivalents-of-scoringrules-and-scoringutils-feedback-welcome/384)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 4\ **Last updated:** [18 February 2026 18:03 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/design-sketch-julia-equivalents-of-scoringrules-and-scoringutils-feedback-welcome/384 "2026-02-18T18:03:55Z")
I’ve been doing some design work (with Claude) on what a Julia version of the probabilistic forecast scoring ecosystem would look like. There’s currently no Julia package for proper scoring rules, and I think the languag… --- ## [Do your evaluations have enough power?](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/do-your-evaluations-have-enough-power/366)
**Author:** [@jonathon.mellor](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jonathon.mellor)\ **Replies:** 27\ **Last updated:** [17 February 2026 17:42 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/do-your-evaluations-have-enough-power/366 "2026-02-17T17:42:09Z")
This is more a collection of thoughts than a coherent research idea, alas. I’m reading lots of literature and doing lots of model scoring, but I can’t help worry that I’m drawing conclusions from statistical artifacts r… --- ## [Looking for new co-organizer for seminars](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/looking-for-new-co-organizer-for-seminars/379)
**Author:** [@kcharniga2](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kcharniga2)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [16 February 2026 21:11 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/looking-for-new-co-organizer-for-seminars/379 "2026-02-16T21:11:55Z")
Dear Epinowcast Community, As my postdoc at Institut Pasteur comes to an end, this month will be my last as co-organizer of the Epinowcast seminars. I started co-organizing the seminars with Sam over two years ago. In t… --- ## [Joseph Lemaitre](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/joseph-lemaitre/375)
**Author:** [@jcblemai](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jcblemai)\ **Replies:** 3\ **Last updated:** [11 February 2026 16:40 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/joseph-lemaitre/375 "2026-02-11T16:40:09Z")
Hey there, I’ve held this account for a long time and been reading most discussions here, love this forum and all. Figured out I should introduce myself and ideally start posting :slight\_smile: great little community. I… --- ## [Community seminar - 04-02-2026 - Show and tell](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-02-2026-show-and-tell/381)
**Author:** [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Replies:** 0\ **Last updated:** [3 February 2026 18:14 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/community-seminar-04-02-2026-show-and-tell/381 "2026-02-03T18:14:04Z")
Tomorrow at 3 pm UK time, we have another in our series of informal show-and-tell discussions, rather than a traditional speaker. Please come and share a bit on what you are working on! See here for more and the links: C… --- ## [Preprint: Overconfident estimates of the reproductive number from the Poisson renewal equation method](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/preprint-overconfident-estimates-of-the-reproductive-number-from-the-poisson-renewal-equation-method/378)
**Author:** [@barborasobolova](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/barborasobolova)\ **Replies:** 6\ **Last updated:** [30 January 2026 08:34 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/preprint-overconfident-estimates-of-the-reproductive-number-from-the-poisson-renewal-equation-method/378 "2026-01-30T08:34:59Z")
Hello everyone, I would like to bring some attention to a new post at the Epinowcast blog, that in turn summarizes a preprint discussing a shortcoming of the Poisson renewal equation method for estimating the effective … [Next page](https://community.epinowcast.org/latest.md?page=1)