# Epinowcast meeting (2022-11-17)

**URL:** <https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epinowcast-meeting-2022-11-17/91>\
**Category:** Meetings\
**Created:** [21 October 2022 11:24 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epinowcast-meeting-2022-11-17/91 "2022-10-21T11:24:23Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 4

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**Author:** ![samabbott](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/samabbott/32/5_2.png) [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\
**Post date:** [17 November 2022 07:54 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/epinowcast-meeting-2022-11-17/91/4 "2022-11-17T07:54:58Z")

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Sadly Sam has failed to organise a meeting link or finish the mission statement draft 😭.

Unfortunately I also have an unavoidable and out of my control clash at 2.30 so will have to dash unless we can push to tomorrow (which I assume would not be good for others?). My bad!

My excuse is that I’ve been very distracted working with @sangwoopark on estimating censored delay distributions truncated by an underlying outbreak process. It is pretty fascinating stuff and I have lots of questions about what it means for the kind of analysis we often do. Maybe someone else has a better handle on this!

# Some details!

This is our working repo (mostly code at the moment): [GitHub - parksw3/epidist-paper](https://github.com/parksw3/dynamicaltruncation)

This paper by Shaun Seaman has some fascinating stuff in it (including the explicit connection to nowcasting) but also nicely room for more to be done. I was thinking of asking him to come and present on it at our monthly seminar (that does mean I need to organise it!).

> **[Estimating a time-to-event distribution from right-truncated data in an...](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9465556/)**
>
> Time-to-event data are right-truncated if only individuals who have experienced the event by a certain time can be included in the sample. For example, we may be interested in estimating the distribution of time from onset of disease symptoms to ...

@sbfnk suggested we use Ebola lineliest data for the case study in this work and it turns out to be the perfect target for nowcasting (including with confirmed/probable case complexity). The repo has code to process the data, visualise etc if wanting to play.

[https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1518587113](https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1518587113)

Me pulling out some graphs: [Case study data · Issue #9 · parksw3/epidist-paper · GitHub](https://github.com/parksw3/dynamicaltruncation/issues/9#issuecomment-1312112963)

Interestingly early versions of this data were used for delay distribution estimation, and Rt based projection. I think it could be a great case study for us. More here [Examples of delay estimation from the literature. · Issue #19 · parksw3/epidist-paper · GitHub](https://github.com/parksw3/dynamicaltruncation/issues/19#issuecomment-1313464613).

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