# Forecasting: Principles & practice book club **URL:** \ **Category:** Uncategorized\ **Tags:** researcher, application\ **Created:** [17 February 2025 10:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276 "2025-02-17T10:28:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [17 February 2025 10:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/1 "2025-02-17T10:28:31Z")
Hi all, Updated: A few folks at LSHTM are planning on setting up a book club to review some chapters and related materials in [Forecasting principles & practice](https://otexts.com/fpp3/). There was some interest in extending this to the broader epinowcast community. Details: - cadence: monthly, on the 2nd Tuesday of the month from 16:00-17:00 GMT starting on March 11th - format: hybrid, in person at LSHTM with a zoom option for those remote - structure: open to suggestions here, but my thought was that we could use this [google sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rupySd3qShkM53XrsFymqYANl3QgxjsA2rizTJgOibE/edit?usp=sharing) to sign up for chapters to lead on. Whoever leads on it would be in charge of chairing the meeting, leading a discussion on the material, and, if relevant, providing related tutorials/applications/examples to promote further discussion. We’ll start with an overview of Chapters 1-4. The goal would be for this to be relatively informal and a safe space for asking questions, discussing related topics, and hopefully generating some ideas. Personally, despite having been in the space of ID forecasting for a few years, a lot of these traditional forecasting methods are relatively new to me, so I am hoping to gain some familiarity and a better understanding of concepts I have maybe heard of, but have rarely if ever used myself. This is open to anyone interested, no need to identify as a forecaster. If interested, just send me an email ([kaitlyn.johnson@lshtm.ac.uk](mailto:kaitlyn.johnson@lshtm.ac.uk)) and I will add you to the calendar invite. ---
**Author:** ![samabbott](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/samabbott/32/5_2.png) [@samabbott](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/samabbott)\ **Post date:** [17 February 2025 13:41 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/2 "2025-02-17T13:41:24Z")
Sounds great and I would be keen to be involved. Can we go earlier than the suggested time? Its outside core hours UK and very out of core hours in Europe and it would be great if we could be big tent here. For me any of those days is good in that kind of time range. ---
**Author:** ![sambrand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Post date:** [24 February 2025 08:47 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/3 "2025-02-24T08:47:02Z")
This sounds good. Thats a good book. Like @samabbott I’d probably prefer earlier. ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [24 February 2025 09:00 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/4 "2025-02-24T09:00:41Z")
We decided to keep to 4-5 pm GMT, hope that still works for you! ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [5 March 2025 10:21 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/5 "2025-03-05T10:21:23Z")
Update for all who are planning on attending on March 11th, we will be reviewing chapters 1-4. It will be hybrid, however, we have a very small room this time (which will not be the case in future months) so in person space will sadly be limited. ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [24 March 2025 11:54 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/6 "2025-03-24T11:54:44Z")
Reminder, we will be meeting again on Tuesday April 8th and are still looking for a volunteer to sign up to lead on chapter 5&6. Doesn’t need to be anything formal, and these chapters are still relatively light in terms of the technical forecasting components ( chapter 5 is about diagnostics and eval, chapter 6 is about scenario forecasts and the role of human judgment). We have a large classroom booked for those interested in joining in person! ---
**Author:** ![sambrand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Post date:** [25 March 2025 13:58 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/7 "2025-03-25T13:58:32Z")
This sounds good! Who is leading the reading? ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [26 March 2025 09:57 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/8 "2025-03-26T09:57:28Z")
We still need someone to volunteer to lead! ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [1 April 2025 14:49 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/9 "2025-04-01T14:49:17Z")
Update, Manuel Stapper will be leading on Chapters 5 & 6 next Tuesday! We will be meeting in LG08 for those attending in person. ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [9 April 2025 07:41 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/10 "2025-04-09T07:41:14Z")
Like this message if you would be interested in using May’s month for FPP to discuss in greater depth methods in forecast evaluation (led by @jamesazam with input from others). ---
**Author:** ![jamesazam](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/jamesazam/32/121_2.png) [@jamesazam](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jamesazam)\ **Post date:** [13 April 2025 12:22 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/11 "2025-04-13T12:22:40Z")
Hi all, I just found out about a recent release of the Python version of Forecasting: Principles and Practice. See [Forecasting: Principles and Practice, the Pythonic Way](https://otexts.com/fpppy/). ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [15 April 2025 10:39 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/12 "2025-04-15T10:39:21Z")
Hi all, Little change of plans – we are going to insert a forecast eval journal club led by @jamesazam on May 20th. We will push the rest of the weeks back and resume meeting the second Tuesday of the month. ---
**Author:** ![sambrand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Post date:** [9 May 2025 10:18 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/13 "2025-05-09T10:18:01Z")
Is this one open invite (aka can I show up…) ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [9 May 2025 11:11 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/14 "2025-05-09T11:11:41Z")
Of course! When @jamesazam is back next week I will ask that he put up some pre-reading materals. ---
**Author:** ![sambrand](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@sambrand](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/sambrand)\ **Post date:** [9 May 2025 11:13 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/15 "2025-05-09T11:13:31Z")
I love a gate crash. ---
**Author:** ![jamesazam](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/jamesazam/32/121_2.png) [@jamesazam](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jamesazam)\ **Post date:** [9 May 2025 15:52 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/16 "2025-05-09T15:52:29Z")
I’ll finalise the resources latest by Tuesday next week. Recommendations are welcomed as I’m not an expert. ---
**Author:** ![jamesazam](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/jamesazam/32/121_2.png) [@jamesazam](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/jamesazam)\ **Post date:** [12 May 2025 15:13 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/17 "2025-05-12T15:13:25Z")
Hi everyone, for the next bookclub session, I will focus on section 3, “Components of a Forecasting System”, from this paper [[2006.00073] Infectious Disease Forecasting for Public Health](https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.00073) to provide the theoretical background and the Forecast Evaluation section of the UEIFID course for the practical background: [Forecast evaluation – UEIFID](https://nfidd.github.io/ueifid/sessions/forecast-evaluation.html). ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [16 May 2025 15:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/18 "2025-05-16T15:28:36Z")
Also adding in for discussion on Tuesday May 20th which is a recent pre-print involving members of the book club on evaluating forecasts in light of confounding factors/ forecastability. > **[The influence of model structure and geographic specificity on predictive...](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2025.04.10.25325611v1)** > > Modellers take many approaches to predicting the course of infectious diseases, and achieve a wide range of accuracy in resulting forecasting performance. For example, forecasters vary in their use of different underlying model structures, and in the... ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [23 May 2025 08:28 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/19 "2025-05-23T08:28:22Z")
For June’s book club, we will spend about 10-15 minutes or so for an introduction to Kath Sherratt’s recent preprint on evaluating forecasts in light of confounding factors. Then we will dive into Chapter 7 on Time Series Regression. The meeting will take place on Tuesday June 10th from 4-5pm BST in KS-207A for those in person. ---
**Author:** ![kejohnson9](https://dub1.discourse-cdn.com/flex005/user_avatar/community.epinowcast.org/kejohnson9/32/122_2.png) [@kejohnson9](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/kejohnson9)\ **Post date:** [1 July 2025 07:27 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276/20 "2025-07-01T07:27:57Z")
Because we ended up spending all of June’s book club discussing the paper on forecast evaluation, we will be reviewing Chapter 7 next week. The meeting is from 4-5 pm BST in KS-207A and on this [zoom link](https://lshtm.zoom.us/j/7392813422). [Next page](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/forecasting-principles-practice-book-club/276.md?page=2)