# Include a simple reference model

**URL:** <https://community.epinowcast.org/t/include-a-simple-reference-model/34>\
**Category:** Project Proposals\
**Tags:** model-extension, package-extension\
**Created:** [23 August 2022 13:26 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/include-a-simple-reference-model/34 "2022-08-23T13:26:28Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 15

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**Author:** ![mariatang](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/898d66/32.png) [@mariatang](https://community.epinowcast.org/u/mariatang)\
**Post date:** [22 January 2025 09:57 UTC](https://community.epinowcast.org/t/include-a-simple-reference-model/34/15 "2025-01-22T09:57:22Z")

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Baselines considered:

- no correction baseline (naïve but not realistically what epi colleagues would expect)
- cut off last few weeks and repeat the previous week(s) (i.e. thinking that the data will be about the same)
- cut off last few weeks and forecast (i.e. not trusting data in last few weeks, but assuming a continuing trend)
- simple nowcast using a delay distribution convolution, based on simplest nowcast in [NFIDD course](https://nfidd.github.io/nfidd/sessions/nowcasting.html#the-simplest-possible-nowcasting-model) (adjusting for delays but not any trends)

We decided to go for cut off and forecast (with a GAM) as a baseline for our measles nowcast, because we thought that might best represent what epi colleagues might try and do in their heads to adjust when looking at data without a nowcast

Also one of our PhD interns did a bit of a lit review on baselines in nowcasting literature, which I can send over via email

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