Baselines considered:
- no correction baseline (naïve but not realistically what epi colleagues would expect)
- cut off last few weeks and repeat the previous week(s) (i.e. thinking that the data will be about the same)
- cut off last few weeks and forecast (i.e. not trusting data in last few weeks, but assuming a continuing trend)
- simple nowcast using a delay distribution convolution, based on simplest nowcast in NFIDD course (adjusting for delays but not any trends)
We decided to go for cut off and forecast (with a GAM) as a baseline for our measles nowcast, because we thought that might best represent what epi colleagues might try and do in their heads to adjust when looking at data without a nowcast
Also one of our PhD interns did a bit of a lit review on baselines in nowcasting literature, which I can send over via email