Epinowcast meeting (2022-11-17)

Sadly Sam has failed to organise a meeting link or finish the mission statement draft :sob:.

Unfortunately I also have an unavoidable and out of my control clash at 2.30 so will have to dash unless we can push to tomorrow (which I assume would not be good for others?). My bad!

My excuse is that I鈥檝e been very distracted working with @sangwoopark on estimating censored delay distributions truncated by an underlying outbreak process. It is pretty fascinating stuff and I have lots of questions about what it means for the kind of analysis we often do. Maybe someone else has a better handle on this!

Some details!

This is our working repo (mostly code at the moment): GitHub - parksw3/dynamicaltruncation

This paper by Shaun Seaman has some fascinating stuff in it (including the explicit connection to nowcasting) but also nicely room for more to be done. I was thinking of asking him to come and present on it at our monthly seminar (that does mean I need to organise it!).

@sbfnk suggested we use Ebola lineliest data for the case study in this work and it turns out to be the perfect target for nowcasting (including with confirmed/probable case complexity). The repo has code to process the data, visualise etc if wanting to play.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1518587113

Me pulling out some graphs: Case study data 路 Issue #9 路 parksw3/dynamicaltruncation 路 GitHub

Interestingly early versions of this data were used for delay distribution estimation, and Rt based projection. I think it could be a great case study for us. More here Examples of delay estimation from the literature. 路 Issue #19 路 parksw3/dynamicaltruncation 路 GitHub.

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