I’d be interested in people in this forum’s view on this pre-print:
From metric to action: An evaluation framework to translate infectious disease forecasts into policy decisions, especially as I know there’s a lot of ongoing thought in this space.
My main take away is it’s great there’s a framework and someone’s fleshed out ideas that have been kicking about the last few years, such as in this paper When are predictions useful? A new method for evaluating epidemic forecasts - PMC.
A reflection I have as a “within system” practitioner is that the “non-trivial” part of getting decision makers to articulate how they make decisions in a way that can be put into a framework is extremely tricky, which could have been engaged with more in the paper.
To provoke some discussion, should REV replace WIS/rWIS/log-WIS?
Perhaps a future talk?