What is a prior

Really nice summary here of the different ways of thinking of priors https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/05/21/prior-as-data-prior-as-belief-prior-as-soft-constraint-prior-as-unconditional-distribution-in-a-generative-model/

For a while I’ve been a fan of the idea of prior stacking but in practice not made much use of it.

In unrelated but related thinking @sambrand was telling me about product distributions in Julia which I guess could be a neat way of expressing that Product Distributions · Distributions.jl

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@sambrand was telling me about product distributions in Julia which I guess could be a neat way of expressing that Product Distributions · Distributions.jl

I wish I could claim credit but the lovely people over at Turing put me onto this handy Distributional form

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I think I know what you mean by prior stacking, but can you give an example? I’m thinking towards when you do some kind of rolling window inference and use the posteriors of the previous inference as prior in the next.

In speculation mode (and way off topic but there you go), I do wonder that if you are doing that kind of thing (which as you say is easier to reason about than to do in MCMC) then maybe its an indication that we should be doing SMC?

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I mean it in the sense they use it in the blog using a weakly informative prior to not be crazy with a second prior which is effectively data