some incomplete thoughts about potential rules:
- should have something about the decision (maybe multiple somethings?). i can imagine some decisions hinge more on “how high will this get” vs “how quickly will X rise” vs “group specific outcomes” vs … - basically, understand what the decision needs => understand what to actually target with hind/now/fore-casting
- related: need to carefully translate what decision needs into what the tool can actually do. e.g. “how high will this get?” isn’t really something to do with nowcasting (aside from the extent to which it gives you a proper view of what’s happening now => what will happen in the future) - questions like that need to be turned into “how high might X get within two weeks, with Y% certainty”?
- probably a few notes about data: what’s available, what the entries actually mean, having a plan to get the nowcasting related information (e.g. when there may be multiple versions of data for the same day)